Climate variability, violence, and narco-trafficking interact to shape migration from Central America to the United States. A new article, “Heterogeneous Effects of Climate, Narco-Trafficking, and Violence on Central American Migration to the United States” examines how climate stress, homicide violence, and narco-trafficking activity interact in the communities people leave behind in Guatemala and Honduras. Violence may weaken the resources, safety, and livelihood conditions that make migration possible, while narco-trafficking activity may create local “mooring” effects that keep people in place even under insecurity and hardship.

Through work like this, the Humanitarian Collaborative continues its commitment to advancing research on migration, displacement, climate vulnerability, and humanitarian policy. By examining how crisis conditions affect both those who move and those who remain in place, the article offers insight into how policy and humanitarian response can better account for the complex drivers of migration.

Read the upcoming article here. Co-authors are David Leblang, the Ambassador Henry J. Taylor and Mrs. Marion R. Taylor Endowed Professor of Politics and professor of public policy at the Batten School, along with collaborators Fabien Cottier, David Wrathall, Jennifer A. Devine, Elise Arellano-Thompson, Rebecca Gustine, Nicholas Magliocca, Jennifer Nakamura, Elizabeth Tellman, and Alex de Sherbinin.